Match preview - Hibs at home

This is the game that we look for when the fixtures are announced, this is the game we’ve been doing an internal countdown to over the past couple of months, weeks and days. And here it is. Well, not quite. It’s on Saturday (15:00 ko). But you know what I mean.

The rebooted Hibees, under Nick Montgomery, are apparently a different beast to that left confused and bruised after the way it was stripped of any identity by the self promoting car salesman Lee Johnson.

I’ve not seen them live since Montgomery took the reigns but recent reports and highlights would point to a team that have found progress through a back to basics shape which focuses on direct and aggressive forward play and it would appear that the players have thus far bought into it.

The message appears to be clearer now which must represent a real breath of fresh air to players who had been forced to swallow terminology such as red arrows and match day minus 1 under the previous cohort.

In contrast the message from our fans towards the higher ups at the moment remains disparate but a result against our Edinburgh rivals could help bring some unity to the noise coming from the stands.

Two away wins have seen us book a trip to Hampden and climb to fourth place in the league table. Momentum is slowly building with players previously on the periphery (Forrest, Grant & Lowry) contributing in the continued absence of the likes of Hackett, McKay & Oda. Saturday should provide the stage for a cup style atmosphere and tempo which will ask questions of a team who have been set up to play a methodical controlled possession based game in recent league matches.

Predicted Line-up

The first challenge facing Naismith with his selection for this fixture is whether to go with a back 3 or 4. The back 3 arguably represents the best option of getting the best out of both Kye Rowles & Toby Sibbick but without Atkinson & Cochrane, I feel that it does not offer the width in the final third that we require to balance out the narrow midfield and the optics of 5 defenders starting in a home Derby would not look good should the result not go our way. Hibs are prone to losing goals and offering opportunities from cross ball situations and our formation on Saturday led to us having no crosses before making some personnel changes in the second half. Our best option in terms of offering width and being in a position to press high against their 4-2-4 system would be to go with a 4-1-4-1.

Although partly culpable for the goal in paisley last week, Zander Clark has enjoyed a solid start to the season and already had two clean sheets to his name against Hibs so no need for a change this weekend.

Given the aforementioned comments regarding our shape, I would like to see us go with a flat back 4. If Doidge starts and the concerns that may raise regarding Rowles physicality then you could feasibly switch him and Kingsley but continuity would be preferable in my opinion with Kent & Sibbick making up the back line.

A look at the stats from Saturday would highlight that we adopted a very narrow system once more in Dingwall with only the introduction of Forrest & Lowry helping to bring some impetus in the final third. Forrest has done enough over the past 4 games to earn the trust of the management team to start on Saturday and would be my preference over Lowry at the moment as he is more disciplined from a positional sense and will assist Kingsley should Miller try and support Boyle down that side.

The centre of the park represents an huge opportunity to gain control of the match against the double pivot of Newell & Jeggo. Beni had a decent 60 minutes in Paisley last week and would be my choice to play the deepest of our midfield three with Devlin & Nieuwenhof playing as advanced 8's competing for second balls and supporting the front 3 of Forrest, Shankland & Vargas. I concede it would be harsh for Jorge Grant to drop out but he along with Boyce & Lowry will have a role to play coming off the bench.

Opposition Form

Nick Montgomery has overseen an unbeaten run of two wins and two draws since taking the reigns but all these matches have been against teams with a low block and unwilling to press outside their own defensive third as shown below.

The 4-2-2 system can yield results in a counter attacking system away from home but lacks flexibility and it's lack of capacity for possession-based football is perhaps its biggest weakness

Concentrating on midfield areas can help to expose the opposition double pivot and make them appear unbalanced. Outnumber these two central midfielders using a 3-man midfield, can boost our chances of controlling possession and dictating the pace of the game.

Another area in which there's an advantage to be gained is out wide. With high wingers and deep full-backs, a 4-2-4 leaves big gaps on the flanks towards the center circle. By favouring the attacking line and the back four, this formation compromises its ability to battle well in midfield, in both central and wide areas. Positional fluidity can also be an issue; with wingers playing so high, it becomes almost impossible for full-backs to overlap them, while there's also no real attacking midfielder as such to break between the lines and link defense with attack.

Final Thoughts

It is true that we are far from the finished article and still need to find a way of creating more opportunities in open play for Shankland to help break his current baron run but there is plenty to take heart from at the moment due to the way we have dealt with cup tie high tempo situations this season (Killie away and the two home European ties).

Saturday offers a great chance for the team and Steven Naismith to claim a statement win and ensure that the positive momentum continues into the International break.

Feel free to leave your feedback and predictions below and thanks for reading.

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