3-4-3 - Is It Working?

Brian clough famously once declared that players lose you games, not tactics. Keeping tabs on social media these days would suggest that this mindset has shifted (specifically amongst fans) and accountability for results is firmly now with the manager and how tactically astute they are.

Since the return from injury of John Souttar towards the tail end of last season, Robbie Neilson has decided to implement a 3-4-3 system which is an alternative set up to the more common 4-2-3-1 that most clubs and Neilson himself have favoured over the past few seasons.

It is a system that generated a lot of debate when Antonio Conte successfully used it to lead Chelsea to the title in 2017 with other clubs such as Arsenal and Wolves trying to replicate it in the following seasons to moderate success.

Looking at the stats at surface level, our decision to use this system has seen us lose only 3 games in 24 with us also unbeaten at Tynecastle and top of the league this season for home form.

Let’s take a proper look at the successes and challenges that have come as a result of this formation and what changes within the squad will need to take place to ensure that we build on our solid start to the season.

The Wide Midfielders

The basic lay out of the 3-4-3 formation uses two wide midfielders and two central midfielders with the wide midfielders capable of reverting into wing back roles when the other team are in possession.

This poses our first and, in my opinion, biggest challenge this season and one which may not be fixed until the summer transfer window. Our use of Michael Smith and Alex Cochrane (two players I admire) in these wide areas means that instead of having wide midfielders who can revert to wing back roles when needed, we have wing backs who drop far too deep when we are being pressed high up the park which is becoming a common theme of our recent games. It could be argued given Cochrane’s age and athletic ability that he could grow into this role and he is at least in the top 10 players in the league for attempted crosses at 62 but even that number is dwarfed by Scott Tanser of St Mirren who is playing in a similar role and has 126. Now most fans reading this will be saying “I know which player I would rather have” but the discussion is around suitability for the roles given to them rather than the individual ability or value that they bring.

On the right we have the experienced and capable Michael Smith but it is probably fair to suggest that given his age, even if he was not playing out of position, we would need to be looking at a long-term option moving forward. Cammy Logan is highly thought of but has missed a lot of football this year. A short-term fix to this would maybe be to bring in Josh Ginnelly to ensure we play on the front foot specifically in home matches with Smith being rotated in when defensive discipline is a higher priority.

An alternative would be to go with a diamond midfield 4 using the likes of McEneff, Walker & Woodburn which would help Devin and Baningime regain control of the midfield which is an area we have failed to influence in our recent trips to Pittodrie and Fir Park. Dependent on opponents this could see us vulnerable in wide areas but given how tight a park Tynecastle is, the diamond could bring a lot of value to our home matches.

The Back 3

Given our intent to play with pace and mobility in the final third instead of having a more direct approach, it is vital that the 3 defenders in our system are all comfortable in possession and happy to take the ball short from goal kicks. Although we are conceding a lot of chances in games, this is more of a consequence of using an attacking formation rather than a mark on the individuals playing at the back who are all having very good campaigns thus far. Craig Halkett is benefiting from a familiar defensive system to the one he enjoyed playing in at Livingston and is underrated in terms of ability on the ball. Stephen Kingsley continues to show great positional instincts along with a very productive contribution from set plays and will hopefully put pen to paper on a contract shortly.

This is the most settled area of the team at the moment and although it is looking very likely that John Souttar will move on next summer, having the versatile Smith and a possible permanent transfer for Taylor Moore could see us filling that void without much fuss.

The Wingers

To a neutral we would appear to have an embarrassment of riches in this position. All four of our recognised first team wide options bring something to the table but there has been a failure to get the right mix up to this point. In fairness to Neilson both McKay and Woodburn arrived after the season had started with Ginnelly and GMS struggling with niggles which have prevented them from pushing for a sustained run in the team. McKay and Woodburn both tend to drop deep to see the ball. Without being privy to training, it is hard to determine if this is happening under instruction or due again to our already highlighted issues with the wide midfielder positions.

Due to Boyce liking to drop deep and link play, it is possible that GMS and Ginnelly offer us a better option in the wide areas as they have more of an instinct for making runs beyond Boyce and stretching teams who in particular prefer to play a flat back four. For all the frustrations that fans can rightly throw at GMS in terms of pressing and desire, it has to be noted that he has a decent goal and assists per 90 minutes ratio, appearing in the top 6 performers in the league ahead of the likes of Boyce, Martin Boyle and Alfredo Morelos.

Unless we find the right formula, I can see this area being a continuous source of frustration for the remainder of the season.

The Midfield Pair

The contribution of both Cammy Devlin and Beni Baningime to our current 3rd place position has been significant and massive praise should go to Robbie Neilson and Joe Savage for finding a fix to an area that we had struggled with for the previous 4 or 5 seasons.

Moving forward, if we are able to source more attacked minded wide options in midfield, then the grumbles on our lack of numbers from the middle of the park will surely be quashed and Devlin has shown some glimpses of a player who could in time add some goals to his game.

The only real point I want to raise with this area is that I would like to see a bit more rotation with Haring specifically and McEneff involved more as this is a punishing position for players in the current system.

I would also note that the current formation would prevent us from finding a suitable position for Jamie Walker and it would seem sadly inevitable that he will leave the club next summer when his contract expires.

The Manager

Given our struggle to find an identity last season, it was imperative that results and the 3-4-3 system hit the ground running for Robbie Neilson this term and thankfully on the whole it has done.

Substitutions thus far have been a mixed bag. At the start of the season, we used players like Haring & Gnanduillet coming on to good effect in our victories over Celtic, St Mirren and Dundee United but there have been examples of failing to react to our opponents changes most notably the two fixtures against Aberdeen.

To many on the outside looking in it would appear insane to question the credentials of a manager who has overseen the club being out of the top 3 of the Premiership in only 5 of 68 weeks during his two spells in charge and there is little evidence both at our club and out-with to suggest that constant managerial changes foster long term success for teams but in this age of instant gratification it is important to acknowledge that there is no such thing as long term managers, just short term appointments who keep winning .

We are in my opinion about to hit a fork in the road with a busy winter schedule and transfer window on the horizon and the execution of what is in theory a very attacking and flexible formation will be crucial to how the fans will rate our performances, results and in turn sustainability of Neilson.

Thank you for reading and please feel free to comment below or DM me @Amoruso1998